The New Math

No, this isn't another rant on how inadequate school education is/was. Nor does it have anything about how working math problems in schools changed enough to confuse parents so they had problems teaching their children in the school-approved methods. (Although I still never will understand how long division works from right to left!)

This new math involves covid 19 statistics. Here in the UA. Post- opening up the economy.

It was supposed to happen more safely after we leveled out our curves and social distanced and wore masks and used sanitizers and.... It isn't happening that way.

Just May 5th, we passed 70,000 deaths.

Today, May 10th, we passed 80,000 deaths.

Note the numbers change by their sources and times of day they are reported, but those are consistent for suppertime checks - my time zone - from one source, tracking world cases by country. Even with that consistency, we all know the numbers are under reported. Florida, Georgia, Nebraska, all have documented stories of blocking  accurate information. Sometimes the blocking is done by county, or company. So much for caveats.

That's 10,000 more American deaths from the virus in just 5 days.

Already these numbers are being blamed on opening the economy too soon. It's not a completely fair assessment. Yet. First you go out and mingle, catch the virus. Then you take up to 2 weeks to come down with enough of a case to get tested, if and where testing is available! After that, you can die in a few days or last a few weeks before dying. (Maybe even recover, but you're not being counted here, lucky you.) So if you want to blame the common May 1st reopening date for the new deaths, you really have to wait until much later in the month for them to start to qualify. These deaths are from people already going out - however necessary their reasons - before the easing of restrictions. They caught it a while ago. It just finally caught up to them.

It should take another week, at least, to start to see the rise in deaths from all the new mingling. To keep it in perspective, with 10,000 deaths in 5 days, another 10,000 deaths in the next 5 days, aka 80,000 on May 15,  will be merely flattening the curve! Flattening doesn't mean no more deaths, just a steady level of increase. So the real telling of the tale of the reopening will be in the next 5, 10, 15, 20 days.

This is the real new math we have to pay attention to.

Hopefully from home. Not a funeral.