Not Believing Those Projections

 "They" updated the projections on the virus for death counts. Instead of 70,000 by August, it's nearly doubled to 134,000 by then. Hell, we've passed 70,000 now and it's only May 5. Happy Cinco De Mayo, and hope you're celebrating quietly, privately.

There is a lot wrong with the numbers. First, we're just not counting them accurately. The earliest cases weren't caught as caused by covid 19. We were a combination of ignorant and in denial.

We still do not have the testing needed to have a clue who has/had the virus. Can you tell when you're asymptomatic that you actually have and can be spreading the virus? Of course not. We weren't made psychic, no matter how much modern fiction entertains us with that idea. Can you tell the difference between allergies, a sore throat, indigestion, an unexplained blood clot, a cold, influenza, and any of the various levels of coronavirus? Particularly when a high fever has only recently been shown not to be the gold standard for suspicion?

Of course not.

Are you totally content to stay at home for months without venturing further than the boundaries of your own yard or spaces where you don't interact with other human beings? C'mon, be honest. If you are, you are a very rare human, one most of your fellows would consider peculiar. I wouldn't say that, being somebody who can cheerfully entertain myself for long periods of time, and who chose for 29 years to have a job where I met few people and most of my contact was via radio. But I may be odd myself. (I tend to make up for all that quiet when I'm comfortable with a small group.)

There's a whole lotta folks out there  who just have to be out and about, meeting and greeting. Of those, a number are willing to be violent about their "rights" to do it, totally disregarding any rights of others to not have contact with them and whatever diseases and bad behavior they happen to be sharing.

Another problem with the models of virus growth is they are based on the idea that we can stay home and act sensibly when we have to be out. Even if we wished to stay isolated, there are families to feed, rent and other bills to pay. Too few of us have it as an "option."

Let's top that off with the word emerging from scientists studying the virus that, not only can it mutate, it has already mutated, and 19b, if you will, spreads even more easily. while also causing more damage. Who knows what 19c will do? But even without going there, it's going to be worse than the models.

Look at the current rates of growth. In early March we had a handful of identified cases resulting in death. In two months, it's nearly 70,000. It's called exponential growth, and anybody who believes that in three more months that rate of growth will have slowed down just doesn't understand exponential contagion. Cries that the curve has flattened come from people who have not been paying attention. It may be happening in New York. "May," not the same as "is." Good as they are at trying to follow the cases, even they don't have enough testing to have accurate numbers, and deaths are still falling through the cracks in terms of attribution to this virus. And flattened does not mean stopped.

Cases are sprouting all over the country. Accurate testing hasn't.  Now, the one thing which held cases in check to a limited extent, sheltering in place orders, are being lifted. Way too many of us are interpreting that is a free-for-all contact sport. And their fearless leader has resumed traveling around the country on his campaign stops disguised as inspecting a factory making covid N95 masks, notedly without wearing one himself, greeting (our) Governor and plant officials who also are refraining from wearing masks. Must be invincible? Or just setting an example for all the loyal followers?

With that in place, the only way death numbers will ONLY double in 4 months is if half of us in this entire country have already been exposed to the virus, and of those, all who are going to die from it have already.

Anybody think that's happened? If so, I'm taking $5 bets against your belief that the toll will only reach 134,000 in August. If you're still thinking of taking that bet, understand we know now that having the first version of covid 19 does not protect you from getting its worse mutation!

 With all that in mind, Steve and I have decided not to leave Arizona for the summer this year. Not only are case clusters sprouting all along the routes we chose from, but we know what we're dealing with here, finding resources and being among other more vulnerable seniors who are demonstrating sense about how they navigate the community.

We'll miss all the hugging and mingling that usually occur during summers north, but this isn't the best year for that anyway.

Today's total US cases, depending on source: 1,203,336 or 1,237.633.
Total deaths: 71,017 or 72,271.