Where Weather Radar Is Wrong

 The big array of weather satellite dishes is way out on the southwest corner of the Twin City metro area, in an outer tier suburb called Chanhassen.  We live around fifty miles out of Minneapolis in the diagonally opposite direction. It depends on whether you drive and which roads, or manage to fly like a crow, and which part of Minneapolis you are referring to for exact mileage.

I've lived in this general area since the early 90s. In all that time, we learned to recognize one thing as a standing joke: where the precipitation was actually falling versus what showed on any radar map. A huge front had a decent chance of being correct. Showers and leading edges, not so much. The detailed maps have all kinds of landmarks showing through the color overlay by which you can place your location in relation to rainfall or snow. It might be roads, rivers, or lakes, or even the squiggles in the state border, since there are no straight lines in our part of it.We know exactly where we are on the maps.

If we happen to be online and wish to check, the first step is to pull up whichever is the favorite radar provider. All the ones we've found and bookmarked allow us to zoom in or out, and move in any direction, depending on how big or small a segment of the map we wish to view. If we're planning to go some place, a quick view of the weather there before we leave can be informative. Do I need an umbrella for the store? It we're looking for the forecast via the TV news, a bigger idea of what's happening is likely better. We use both.

Nearly 90% of the time, radar shows snow or rain falling where we live, whichever part of the area we've been in over the years.  It can be as specific as raining on our street. We get that much detail.  But if we haven't heard it on the roof, we're not surprised. It's a quick few steps to whichever window or door to check. Over half the time our yard and street are dry as the proverbial bone. We often watch on radar the storm roll through and over us, and laugh because it's just not here. 

Now we're well versed in what virga is. It's common enough, and often fun to photograph. I wonder many times how much of what radar claims to see is just that, rain in the clouds that never reaches the  ground. But when it's a thunderstorm booming outside us, and radar says it's been dumping on us for ten minutes but hasn't actually made it here yet, we have to wonder just who calibrated those big dishes down in Chanhassen. Is there too much earth curvature? Do they care?

The big systems do get here. Rain does dump. Snow packs in all the corners. It's not that we don't get the weather in real precipitation. But today is a big case in point.

We've been readying ourselves for several days for a huge winter system starting today and ending tomorrow night. The metro is announcing where cars needing to park on streets can instead park free in other lots or ramps for the duration, in order for plows to clear the streets of a likely foot of snow. They never do that! But they don't want to complicate everybody's lives by getting their cars towed, and have to come back after paying large fines only to find poorly cleared streets from all the cars left on them. They want the plows able to do the job. Four inches, maybe not so critical. But a foot of snow? They're talking plowing twice. So far they haven't mentioned needing clear streets for St. Patrick's Day, but I'm sure it's on their minds for the usual parade.

We don't have that issue here, all places having parking off the streets, year round, required. We have contacted our shoveling person about our needing to be dug out, but not till Monday or Tuesday, since we're not going anywhere. The pantry is very well supplied, as planed from the day we moved in, and no medical appointments until late in the week. We're good sitting tight.

So it has been mostly curiosity plus entertainment through the day to compare the view through our windows with the radar version of where it was snowing. Radar had it snowing here and for miles around, four hours before the first flake was visible.

Of course it did!